General election latest: Minister hangs up on Sky's Sam Coates after being told poll has predicted he'll lose his seat (2024)

Two huge stories from the world of British politics this afternoon will be the focus of tonight'sPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridge.

If you need a catch-up before we dive into an hour of interviews and analysis, we've got you covered.

First our deputy political editor Sam Coates reports on Labour's possible historic landslide, with a YouGov poll projecting a 194-seat majority.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sam says some Tory MPs are "panicking" about this poll tonight.

And then there's Nigel Farage.

Our political reporter Jennifer Scott has the latest on his decision to run for parliament again - two weeks after saying he wouldn't.

He's also become leader of Reform UK, replacing Richard Tice.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Sophy will be hearing fromDefence Secretary Grant Shappsto offer the Tories' response to Labour's commitment to the UK's nuclear deterrent earlier today.

For Labour, we'll hear fromshadow ministerNick Thomas-Symonds.

And we'll also get the thoughts ofSky News' election analyst Professor Michael Trasheron a landmark YouGov poll predicting a huge Labour majority and crushing Tory wipeout at the election.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Chris Wilkins, former director of strategy for Theresa May;
• Theo Bertram, ex-adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Sophy will be hearing from Defence Secretary Grant Shapps to offer the Tories' response to Labour's commitment to the UK's nuclear deterrent earlier today.

For Labour, we'll hear from shadow minister Nick Thomas-Symonds.

And we'll also get the thoughts of Sky News' election analyst Professor Michael Trasher on a landmark YouGov poll predicting a huge Labour majority and crushing Tory wipeout at the election.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Chris Wilkins, former director of strategy for Theresa May;
• Theo Bertram, ex-adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Patrick English, an expert from YouGov, has spoken to Sophy Ridge about the results of his organisation's poll.

If you missed it, it's predicting Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister with a majority of 194 seats (read more).

It would be a "historic result", says Mr English

Though he notes developments like the announcement of Nigel Farage as a candidate today (read more here) - not account for in the polling - will have an impact on the results.

He also highlights the scale of the analysis - with almost 60,000 people having spoken to YouGov in the last week.

And the views of these people lead YouGov to think there will be a "supermajority".

The Conservatives would crash to a "terrible defeat" in the kind of result "we've not seen in British politics for a long, long time".

He notes the impact not just of a Labour revival in the Red Wall, but Reform in other Leave-voting areas and the Lib Dems in traditionally safe Tory seats in the south of England.

Our deputy political editor Sam Coates has a stacked contacts book - and was interrupted on air just now by none other than the defence secretary, Grant Shapps.

The timing couldn't have been better - it came just as Sam was reporting on a YouGov poll predicting a huge majority for Labour and several Tory big beasts losing their seats, including Mr Shapps.

"Hello Grant Shapps, you're live on Sky News - I'm in the studio with Sophy Ridge," said Sam.

He revealed he was on course to lose his seat - and Mr Shapps promptly hung up.

Fear not, we'll be hearing from him properly later - he's a guest on tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge from 7pm.

It's just about dinner time - and wow have we had a busy day today.

You can catch up with the latest Daily Podcast here - it's all about a landmark election poll predicting a huge majority for Labour:

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

If you want a fuller rundown, here is today's main news:

• A YouGov poll predicted Labour will win a supermajority of 194 seats - with the Conservatives routed to just 140 MPs;
• Tory ministers are among those who could lose their seat - including the defence secretary, Grant Shapps, who hung up on our deputy political editor Sam Coates when he was told live on air;
• Just before this poll was published, Nigel Farage announced he was standing to be an MP for Reform UK - U-turning on his previous stance of not contesting;
• As political correspondent Rob Powell says, Mr Farage doesn't just have his eye on this election but the years ahead;
• This morning, Labourwas pitching itself as the "party of defence" as it pledged to build new nuclear submarines;
  
• And the Conservatives were campaigning on reforming the Equalities Act, including wanting to protect single sex toilets;
• Equalities minister Kemi Badenoch also said trans athletes may have to compete with their biological sex;
• In slightly lighter news, the prime minister revealed his preferred Nando's order - with a surprise inclusion in the sides.

• Elsewhere, the SNP said there was no need for the UK to have a nuclear deterrent, in response to the Labour announcement;
• The Liberal Democrats sabotaged Rishi Sunak as he held a campaign event;
• Meanwhile, political correspondent Serena Barker-Singh outlined the difficulties facing Sir Keir Starmer over Jeremy Corbyn;

Here are a couple of other stories that may interest you:

Our essential political podcast,Politics At Jack And Sam's, is going out every week day through the election campaign to bring a short burst of everything you need to know about the day ahead as this election unfolds - here is today's edition.

Tap here to follow Politics At Jack At Sam's wherever you get your podcasts.

Stick with us for all the latest throughout the afternoon.

Nigel Farage's bid to become MP for Clacton, Essex, "could not have been much worse for the Conservatives" and may have a significant impact beyond the election, says political correspondentRob Powell.

His profile "is only bad for the Tories, and frankly, only good for Labour".

But Mr Farage appeared to have his eyes not only on the next four weeks when announcing his candidacy, but on the next five years.

Should Labour win, and the Tories endure a "crushing defeat", but Farage himself ends up in parliament, there could be a "loud and controversial, but also influential, voice on the right of politics".

That could then end up shaping what the Tory party ends up looking like post-election, potentially shifting further to the right.

Farage's influence set to grow

As for the next four weeks, Mr Farage's announcement will increase his influence during the election campaign.

"Not only is he announcing that he will run for a Westminster seat, he is announcing that he will take over as Reform leader as well, which clearly gives him a lot more media exposure," says Rob.

"It means he will be involved in debates and in people's newspapers and on people's TV screens.

"I think this is a really significant development."

With YouGov predicting a rout of the Conservative Party, it is worth digging into which famous faces could be finished.

They could follow in the footsteps of Michael Portillo, who was famously unseated in 1997.

He was a Tory cabinet minister, beaten by Labour's candidate in Enfield as Tony Blair swept to power.

Below is who is at risk this time:

• Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor;
• Grant Shapps, the defence secretary;
• Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader;
• Victoria Prentis, the attorney general;
• Alex Chalk, the justice secretary;
• David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary;
• Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister;
• Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister;
• Bim Afolami, a Treasury minister;
• Lee Rowley, a housing minister.

Our deputy political editorSam Coatestakes us through the potential results:

In YouGov's own words - this major poll (see previous post) on the outcome of the election is not a prediction, but an estimate.

So what makes it different to the plethora we've had already?

Well, this one is done with the MRP method.

MRP stands for the somewhat word salad-y "Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification".

In simple terms, this is how it works:

• YouGov asks lots of people, across the country, how they intend to vote. It also asks them questions about who they are so they can paint a picture of the voter;
• The pollsters use these pictures to know which characteristics match with someone voting a certain way - this is the regression bit;
• YouGov then combines this with a second piece of information it has - a breakdown of all the constituencies and the kinds of people who live in each one;
• These portraits of how people vote - based on where they live, gender, age and many other factors - are matched with the descriptions of all the different constituencies to produce an estimate for how each seat intends to vote. This is the stratification;
  
• From there, YouGov provides the estimate of how the general election could turn out.
  

A huge number of people are asked for their opinions to build up the pictures used in MRP.

Sometimes it can be close to 20,000 people being asked.

By Sam Coates, deputy political editor

Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a majority of 194 seats - the biggest for 100 years - according to the first polling projection by YouGov since the election was called.

The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 221 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge, and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election was being held right now.

Today marks the first of three polling projections by YouGov, as part of a joint campaign with Sky News.

The projection shows an historic Labour landslide bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, with the party getting the highest number of seats of any party at an election in history since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

It would be the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Blair's 1997 landslide majority of 179 and Margaret Thatcher who got 144 in 1983.

Read the full story below: